We give leaders too much credit for change

I’ve been wondering about the influence of leaders. I’ve been wondering about the conditions that facilitate leaders contributing to major shifts in the ecosystems in which they operate. And conversely how other apparently talented and powerful people seem to be restricted in their influence. Some find pathways of ‘flow’, while others seem to be pushing against the system. For example …

On November 3^rd 2020, the voting citizens of the USA chose Joe Biden over Donald Trump and the world sighed in collective relief. But as Hugh White argues in the latest Quarterly Essay, Biden’s view of America’s place in the world was grounded in the realities of 25 years previous, when the post Cold War world assumed its friendship and protection.

Ironically, Trump’s instincts and prejudices mesh perfectly with the trajectory of global power structures that are seeing the US move from what White refers to as a unipolar to a multipolar power structure. The reality is, according to White, that the US has been withdrawing from Asia and Europe for the last ten years, and the next era will see regional powers led by ‘strong men’, wielding their power in a ‘complex combination of competition, accommodation and cooperation’. The point being that the environment(s) in which we lead are in constant flux. The times in which we live now have momentums of change that are ushering in a fundamentally different world, and significantly evolved communities and workplaces.

More generally, I suspect leaders don’t have as much influence as we give them credit for. Maybe the most powerful thing is the momentums and trajectories of society, the collective. And that the collective simply ‘chooses’ and ‘affirms’ the leader most likely to move with the front edge of the tides of inevitability? Maybe.

Over the last year I have had dozens of conversations with people in different environments, where there is an unconscious clinging to the realities of the past. A past when our interventions could have prevented catastrophic global warming with its dire consequences for biodiversity, extreme weather and social inequity. A past when our innovation in democracy could have reinstalled trust in political leadership; a past when the arc of history could have been bent towards justice. This clinging amounts, in my view, to a denial of current realities. The problem being that while we live as if the world of ten or fifteen years ago still exists, our difference-making efforts can be blind to the need to live and lead in the world we actually have, a world where economic and social systems are largely immune to justice and equality at scale.

The sigh of relief that Biden’s America would resume its place in the global community is the same sigh of relief we get when we gather with other like-minded difference-makers at conferences or smaller gatherings; we feel hope that things will get better based on our efforts. And of course, our efforts do make a difference, but mostly, they make a local difference to a select cohort, rather than the system transformation we insist we’re working on. The exceptions prove the rule.

All of this can be depressing, but it needn’t be. For those paying attention, these times are bringing a sharper focus on the things that matter most in the mysterious adventure of life. 2025 has offered us a clarion invitation to reset, to step back and (re)commit to the things we’ll be most proud of 25 years from now. If it happens that momentums of positive change join up and usher in a better world for our grandchildren, we can be proud of our efforts. But I think the primary incentive to live well, with wisdom and grace, is that it is simply the right thing to do as humans.

And so I wonder who the leaders amidst us are, in business, civil society and government, who’s instincts and capabilities mesh with the trajectory of our societies toward the things that matter most to people. I hear people wonder where the compelling opposition to Trump will come from. Here in Australia I hear people wonder who will stand up and point us in the direction of a healthy future rather than a nostalgic past or tweaked status quo.

In the cacophony of busyness and the tsunami of social and environmental change, I think we need “oases of connection”; gatherings where we can be together with trust and resolve; spaces where we can be authentically ourselves with like-hearted people who share our vision for a better world, but also quiz each other on our assumptions about what is needed. Spaces where we look after each other. Spaces where we prospect for the leaders who can read the waves of positive forward momentum and navigate a path with flow and conviction.

I love the call for wisdom from Julian Morris: The Wisdom Path: Finding Our Way in Liminal Times. In a message following the post, he suggests we cultivate “movements that don’t deny the unravelling [of society as we know it], but meet it with some degree of intention, humility and care.”

Yes. I like that.

Stay uncluttered and connected.